Work on building a digital twin of the world’s forests has reached its halfway point. Hopefully, in five years, an extensive digital model allowing to cover all of the world’s forests will be completed. The model offers tools for sustainable forest management, analysing the health and growth of forests and modelling the impacts of climate change. VTT is developing the digital forest twin as part of a European Union flagship initiative, whose objective is to create a digital model that spans the entire globe.
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- The digital model requires advancements in precision and data, leveraging artificial intelligence and upcoming satellite missions like ESA's ROSE-L, FLEX, and CHIME to enhance accuracy in analysing forests globally.
- VTT's digital forest twin is part of the Forest Digital Twin Component project, funded by ESA, and the Horizon Europe-funded TerraDT project, focusing on modelling climate risks and improving land surface representation, respectively.
- The forest digital twin can be used for various studies, such as biodiversity and climate impacts, offering potential solutions for climate-related challenges to decision-makers, researchers, businesses, NGOs, and citizens.
This summary is written by AI and checked by a human.
Over the past five years, VTT has been developing a digital model of the world’s forests through various projects. The goal is to complete the digital forest twin, for the digital globe being developed by the European Union Destination Earth programme in five years. There are several important reasons for creating a global modelling system for forests.
“At the national level, there are several countries with outstanding models already being used in the extremely precise measurement of forest health and, for example, carbon stock. However, forests, global phenomena and environmental challenges are not bound by national borders. Tools that function in accordance with the same principles and standards, regardless of national borders, are needed for the understanding of the carbon balance of forests and estimating how climate change impacts it at the global level. Using this modelling system, the data on forests in different countries is reliable and comparable,” explains Matti Mõttus, Principal Scientist at VTT in charge of developing the digital forest twin.
Development in precision, artificial intelligence and satellite data
Before the digital model of forests is ready, there are several challenges to be tackled. For example, there is not enough comprehensive measurement data on the world’s forests. To fill this gap in data, artificial intelligence-based methods, among others, must be used.
In addition, the precision of the digital forest model still requires development.
“In the climate model, a single pixel encompasses several square kilometres of the Earth’s surface including forest and other cover types. This is not sufficient for understanding many key aspects of forests, such as their commercial value, biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. When the digital model of forests is completed, it can be used to analyse a forest anywhere in the world to an accuracy of even ten metres. Thanks to this degree of precision, we can make even better decisions based on real data, whether we’re dealing with carbon stock, biodiversity or forest growth,” says Mõttus.
Satellite data will also further enhance and develop the accuracy of the system in the near future. European Space Agency (ESA) satellite missions ROSE-L, FLEX and CHIME will be heading to space in the next few years, and the objective is to harness the data they produce for use of the digital forest twin.
”Satellites use various technologies, such as hyperspectral imaging and longer-wavelength radar. The data produced by the upcoming satellite missions will provide more precise information on, for example, deforestation, the biochemical composition of forests and the photosynthesis that indicates their vitality,” explains Mõttus.
Work proceeding step by step
VTT is primarily responsible for the development of the digital forest twin. The entity is being constructed through projects in cooperation with other European actors. Over the next two years, work will be done in the Forest Digital Twin Component (DTC) project, which is headed by VTT and funded by ESA. Launched in November 2024, the project focuses on the modelling and analysis of forests using advanced computing and satellite technologies. In addition, the Forest DTC project is studying the suitability of the digital forest model for forecasting climate risks, such as wildfires and insect damage. The project combines the expertise of six partners from Finland, Germany, Portugal, Spain and Czechia. VTT is also part of the four-year, Horizon Europe-funded TerraDT project, which is headed by CSC – IT Center for Science. Launched at the beginning of the year, this project focuses on improving the representation of land surface in the climate digital twin as part of the Destination Earth programme. Forests also play a crucial role in this project.
The forest model can also be used more widely in the study of other subjects. Implemented in cooperation with the University of Jyväskylä, the forest modelling system at the core of the digital twin was used to study the occurrence of bird species. The work was carried out in the Destination Earth Data Lake computing environment, which is maintained by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT).
Development of the overall global digital twin is headed by ESA in cooperation with EUMETSAT and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). It will allow us to use and combine data from different areas such as water bodies, glaciers, and forests to monitor the impacts of nature and human activity on our planet, forecast extreme weather and come up with solutions to tackle climate-related challenges. Among the first to step into the world's forests will be decision-makers and researchers, but the aim is to expand its use to also include businesses, non-governmental organisations, and ordinary citizens. Access to future information helps us understand the impacts of our actions – both as a society and as individual forest owners.
Constructing a digital twin requires multisectoral expertise. VTT’s wide ranging expertise includes data analysis, software development, modelling and simulation. In addition, VTT has a deep understanding of and experience in remote sensing of forests as well as the ability to utilise satellite data and machine learning to form a real-time situational picture.
